Reasearch 2000 for the Lexington Herald Leader (PDF), taken Oct. 22-24 (likely voters, no trendlines):
Chandler (D): 41
McConnell (R-inc.): 46
Undecided: 13Stumbo (D): 37
McConnell (R-inc.): 46
Undecided: 17Luallen (D): 40
McConnell (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 15Horne (D): 34
McConnell (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)
They say you can’t tell the players without a program. So:
- Ben Chandler currently represents Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. He lost a gubernatorial race to Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2003, but held statewide office for many years prior.
- Crit Luallen is Kentucky’s State Auditor. She is seeking re-election to that post this year. The same poll discussed in this post also shows Luallen with a commanding 55-33 lead in the auditor’s race.
- Greg Stumbo is the outgoing state Attorney General. He is probably best known for bringing charges against Fletcher over the latter’s corrupt state hiring practices. Stumbo ran for the Dem Lt. Gov. nod earlier this year on a ticket with Bruce Lunsford, but the pair lost to Steve Beshear and Daniel Mongiardo.
- Andrew Horne is a Marine who lost a primary last year to John Yarmuth in KY-03. (Yarmuth of course went on to defeat GOP Rep. Anne Northup in one of the bigger upsets of 2006.)
The most interesting thing here is not just that McConnell is held under 50% by all comers, but by the fact that he gets the same score no matter who he goes up against. Horne only has 45% name rec (which actually strikes me as high), and yet he still keeps McConnell at 45%.
This undoubtedly has a lot to do with McConnell’s weak favorability rating – just 47-46, with 25% saying their opinion is “very” unfavorable. This is in line with SUSA’s numbers (49-46). I’ll note that McConnell’s internal polling (apparently provided to the newspaper in this accompanying article) has him at 55-32, but when set against the Herald-Leader and SUSA numbers, this survey is an outlier.
The favorability numbers for McConnell’s potential challengers:
Chandler: 57-31
Luallen: 56-21
Stumbo: 49-38
Horne: 36-9
Chandler has said he won’t run, but he hasn’t issued any Shermanesque statements. Luallen is obviously waiting until after the upcoming elections. Stumbo and Horne are both in exploratory modes. No matter who our nominee ultimately is, Mitch McConnell is looking awfully weak for a Republican party leader sitting in a red state. This could definitely be a pick-up opportunity if we see another wave election.
Kentucky’s a tough sell, but not at all impossible. It would take cobbling together a diverse group of voters — blacks, Louisville folks, Lexington moderates, and Appalachians in the eastern part of the state (who actually still are loyal Democrats, even moreso than their counterparts in West Virginia). Do that and don’t get clobbered too badly in southern Kentucky (which no Democrat is going to win) and the Cincy ex-urbs, and its possible.
its actually Western KY where Mitch is the strongest.
As I wrote here last night, Horne’s experience as a Lt. Col. on the ground in Iraq will shield him the best from the inevitable “cut and runner, defeatocrat” line of attack that will come from Mitch no matter who runs. Having Ft. Campbell in Mitch’s strongest region will also help Horne cut into his support, as Horne has been very outspoken against McConnell’s vetoes of Webb’s amendments to restore proper troop rotations between tours (which has ravaged this area).
Mitch McConnel would be the single biggest accomplishment of the progressive movement and the netroots. We need to at least give it a fight. Chandler would win for sure but I don’t think he will be a senator until 2011. I’ve been leaning Stumbo because he seems like he is ready to do it more then anyone else, but those negatives are bad. I wish the poll told who was rating him negatively. Is it just that he has high name rec with Republicans because he is the only Dem who has announced?
Horne seems like the most progressive and I like his background. But is he going to be able to raise money at all? I know Jim Webb knocked off Allen without being a very good fundraiser but I’d still like someone who could raise some money.
The biggest surprise to me was Luallen. I have to admit I can’t remember even hearing that she could be a candidate but those polling numbers look great and if she is pro-choice then their would be the EMILY’s List factor. I really don’t know much about her but she seems like she might make a good candidate.
I just hope we can avoid a primary battle and get unified around a candidate soon. The sooner it’s Mitch vs whoever the better. But honestly I don’t have a clue who would make the best candidate.
From these numbers it even looks a better bet than Maine and Oregon. Now I don’t think it will end up that way but it is encouraging all the same. We are now probably looking at the top ten being VA, NH, CO, NM, MN, ME, OR, KY, TX and AK with Mark Begich. Kay Hagan might also give Liddy Dole a run in NC. And at the very least the GOP are going to have to spend some of their smaller than usual funds in winning KS, TN, ID, NE, OK and GA. I really believe the two seats in WY and AL, MS, SC are the only really safe GOP seats and you never know Cochran might yet retire and Graham is probably in for a nasty primary!
I don’t know anything about her position on the issues. But:
– she’s got the best positive negative ratio of the four Dems
– she’s won statewide and will do so again in a couple of weeks.
– she’s a woman. honestly, we need more women to run for the Senate. Thus far we have Jeanner Shaheen this year and that’s it.
I hope she’ll run.